This week and next, Paris is hosting a range of heads of state, delegates, scientists, and NGOs for a historic conference in which countries will develop the first ever universal climate change agreement. This Conference of the Parties, or COP falls under The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and is a yearly meeting of countries with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere.
The first UNFCCC took place in Berlin in 1995 but has since lost its grit. Countries have thus far been unable to agree on a fair way to tackle the issue and few of them have made a solid commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This year, the 21st Conference of the Parties is expected to be different. The eyes of the world seem to be on this conference and an actual meaningful agreement is expected to be made. The negotiations will be complex, multilayered and wrought with political motivations in every direction. So here are a few things it is important to know.
Why this one?
Years of failed climate talks have created an atmosphere where participants are hungry for change. The lead up to COP21 has been so full of momentum and attention that the talks should be a pressure cooker leading to results.
This will also be the most well attended conference so far in terms of world leaders. 150 heads of state are now in Paris including President Obama, who has resurrected acting on climate change as one of his top goals before leaving office. His domestic climate actions have also sent a signal to the rest of the world that the US is ready to get serious about a climate deal.
The United States has also reached a level of cooperation with China not seen in the conference’s history. As the two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, and also economic competitors, the US and China cooperating should be a strong force for change and progress.
Another reason COP21 is so significant, is that world leaders will have to agree on what happens after 2020, when the current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions run out.
Why is it important for entire nations to agree on an international deal?
In short, because it’s a global problem. While many singular countries, states, cities, and even individuals have been addressing climate through policy and action for years, the bigger problems can only be solved on an international scale.
Another problem is that the countries that will be most impacted by climate change are, in many cases, countries that have no role in causing the phenomenon. Malawi, for example, is a small African country with a virtually indetectable carbon footprint. However, because of the actions of bigger, richer countries, it will be greatly harmed by drought if climate change is allowed to continue unabated. Since many of these countries are already being affected by climate change, they need international help in order to react and adapt.
What will a successful deal actually look like?
The deal is going to have to be a major one since the problem is so big. Researchers have agreed that a successful climate agreement will contain these 4 things:
- Long-term mitigation and adaptation goals, as well as a hard plan to phase out greenhouse gas emissions. (Ideally, phasing them out completely by mid-century.)
- Funds to help vulnerable countries that are experiencing climate impacts.
- Open and transparent reporting wherein the public can access and evaluate a country’s progress in cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
- Regularly updated and reviewed reduction plans, called Intended Nationally-Determined Contributions, or INDCs.
While many countries and the European Union are pushing for a legally-binding agreement, (as opposed to just a speech and a handshake) the US appears to be expecting something less strict. American politics is simply too hard to get through for a binding agreement and too slow to accept climate change. However, if commitments similar to the 4 items above are made in any form, the conference will be a success.
What happens after Paris?
Our current INDCs will not keep the world from warming. However, it is a big step. A successful climate agreement in Paris after 20 years of failed negotiations will be another big step. However, it will not be the end of the road. Far from it.
While ambitious and lofty promises will be made at this conference, most people are calling for a review process of the INDCs. That way, everyone can track a country’s progress in, say, reducing major pollutants in the power sector by 60% as China has promised. Countries can also take advantage of the review process and use it to scale back commitments or renegotiate promises made.
Even if a successful deal is struck, it will need to be put into action. Policymakers will have to work with scientists to develop effective policies at home, predict the countries that will be most vulnerable and prevent us from handing down a fragile and chaotic world to future generations.
Businesses are starting to think of ways to price carbon. Developed countries will need to finance projects that help developing countries as they adapt to the effects of climate change, or in some cases, fall into states of emergency because of them.
A lot still needs to be done and there is a long list of things to consider including politics, big business, and the generally massive size of the problem. An agreement in Paris would not solve climate change in itself. However, the first step in solving a problem is admitting you have one. And in Paris, 150 heads of state, as well as 500 institutions representing $3.4 trillion in assets, will gather to admit we have one and hopefully take the next steps in solving it.